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Risk & position sizing

Risk Calculator

The maximum you should lose on one trade, before anything else about the trade is decided.

Inputs it asks for
Account balance value
Risk per position % value
Open positions value
How correlated are they choose
Formula shown · assumptions disclosed

What it computes

The maximum you should lose on one trade, before anything else about the trade is decided. The page states the equation, the units it expects and the rounding it applies, so the result can be reproduced by hand.

Where it sits in the chain

A calculator gives you a number. This one feeds the next: account to risk, risk to position size, position size to the trade, and the trade to expectancy, drawdown and risk of ruin.

See the performance tools →
Inputs
Result
Risk per position $250
Nominal total risk $750 (3.00%)
Correlation-adjusted risk $450
As % of account 1.80%
Three longs in EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD are not three separate 1% risks. On a dollar move they behave closer to one 3% risk.
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The formula

nominal risk = risk% × open positions
adjusted risk = nominal × correlation factor

Positions that move together are not separate risks. The adjustment applies a factor of 1.0 for highly correlated positions, 0.6 for loosely related ones and 0.35 for genuinely independent ones.

Worked example

A $25,000 account with three positions at 1% each, somewhat correlated:

per position = 25,000 × 0.01 = $250
nominal = 250 × 3 = $750 (3.00%)
adjusted = 750 × 0.6 = $450 (1.80%)

The nominal figure flatters you when the positions are independent and understates you when they are not. Only the adjusted figure describes a bad day.

What it assumes

  • The correlation factor is a bucket, not a measurement. For a real number use the correlation calculator.
  • Correlation rises toward 1 in a sell-off, so the "barely related" bucket is least reliable exactly when it matters.
  • It treats every position as equally sized. Unequal sizes need the per-position figures summed individually.

Common questions

Are three 1% positions the same as one 3% position?

If they are all long the same currency, close to it. Three longs in EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD behave on a dollar move like one large dollar-short.

What total portfolio risk is reasonable?

Most systematic traders cap correlation-adjusted exposure somewhere between 4% and 6%. The number matters less than computing it adjusted rather than nominal.

What is the difference between risk per trade and total risk?

Risk per trade is what one stop costs you. Total risk is what a bad day costs across every open position — and once the positions are correlated, it is much closer to their sum than to any one of them.

What to work out next

A calculator answers one question and raises the next. These are the ones this figure feeds into.

Correlation Calculator

Whether two open positions are really one position wearing two tickers.

Position Size Calculator

Turn an account balance, a risk percentage and a stop distance into a size in lots, shares or contracts.

Drawdown Calculator

Peak-to-trough decline, and the gain required to climb back out of it.

Risk Calculator · rounding shown to the precision displayed

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Risk/Reward Calculator

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Position Size Calculator

Turn an account balance, a risk percentage and a stop distance into a size in lots, shares or contracts.

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Quantify the trade, then keep the record.