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Section pillar · 259 pages

Technical Analysis: Traditional Practice, Tested With Data

Every formation written as a rule, then run over 1.8 million bars.

Textbook technical analysis tells you what a pattern means. This section tells you how often it occurred, what followed it, and whether the difference is large enough to trade. Where the answer is no, the page says no.

The headline finding

Across 89 formations, candlestick patterns show no measurable edge over an arbitrary entry.

Mean edge of +0.02pp. A few formations look better and a few worse, but the spread is what you would expect from noise at these sample sizes.

1,172,151
bars tested
89
formations as rules
18
chart patterns
+0.02pp
mean edge
Measured · engine output, not a claim
01 · 89 formations Candlestick patterns Search and filter all 89, each with its detection rule, occurrence count and verdict. Open the section → 02 · 18 formations Chart patterns The classical geometry, written as machine-checkable conditions rather than a sketch. Open the section → 03 · 5 studies Research What was asked, how it was measured, and what came back, including when nothing did. Open the section →

Every assertion wears a marker

So you can tell textbook consensus from our own measurement without inferring it from tone.

Established

Uncontested and verifiable outside this site.

Traditional claim

What the textbooks assert, reported as their claim.

Method

How the rule was defined and detected.

Measured

Our own output, with the sample size attached.

Unresolved

Too few occurrences to say anything. Said plainly.

Candlestick patterns · 89 formations

Every formation defined as an exact rule

89 formations written as conditions over open, high, low and close, then measured against real markets. Search them, filter by direction or candle count, and open any one for its rule and its verdict.

22
single candle
26
two candle
28
three candle
13
four and five candle
Most common is Spinning Top at 123.0 per 1,000 bars, about one bar in eight. Rarest is Concealing Baby Swallow at 0.00.
89 patterns · 227 pages · 124 comparisons

Chart patterns · 18 formations

Exact geometry for all 18 classical formations

Head and shoulders, double tops, wedges, flags and triangles, each drawn from machine-checkable conditions: what has to be true, what the conventional target is, and what invalidates it.

Not measured here

The chart formations carry geometry and the traditional claim, not our own forward-return study. That work is not done yet, and the pages say so rather than implying a verdict.

The studies behind the verdicts

Question · method · result
Research Do Candlestick Patterns Work? 89 Patterns, Measured The headline study. What was asked, how it was measured, and the answer that came back. Research Candlestick Pattern Statistics: Occurrence Rates Across 1.8M Bars How often each formation actually appears, including the one detected exactly once. Research Most Reliable Candlestick Patterns: What the Data Shows The ranking, and why the top of it is thinner than it looks. Method Candlestick Patterns Backtested: Full Method and Limits Detection rules, exit rules, the conditioning grid, and what the test cannot tell you. Research Candlestick Patterns for Day Trading: What the Intraday Data Shows Whether shorter bars change the answer. Supporting Does Technical Analysis Work? What Our Testing Found The section-level answer, with the caveats that belong to it.
Technical Indicators What each one computes, and what it claims to tell you. Multiple Timeframes What changes when the bars change, measured rather than asserted. Technical vs Fundamental What each approach is actually asking of the data. Cheat Sheet All 89 formations on one printable page. Encyclopedia Every formation with its rule, in one reference. Comparisons 124 side-by-side pairs, differing condition by condition.

Test a pattern against your own account, not a textbook.

Log in and run any formation through the sizing and performance tools, with the sample size and the verdict attached.